Monday, September 3, 2012

Pace Off Is The Key


Throughout the short history of Twenty20 cricket, slow bowlers have been a revelation. Pace off the ball has been a wicket taking option and also an option which controls the flow of runs. Many at first thought spinners would be dispatched out of the park when the county circuit introduced the first domestic twenty20 competition in the summer of 2003, but instead spinners have out-bowled and out-performed the pacers. Majority of the highest wicket takers and highest ranked bowlers in Twenty20 cricket are spinners at the international level. Here in sub continental conditions during the 4th international t20 championship, spin will have an important say and be the most influential factor in the tournament. This refers not only to bowling spin well, but also tackling it when holding a bat in hand. This will be the slow bowler’s World Cup. Spin undoubtedly will be the most crucial factor and aspect of the games and there are many fine bowlers and players of spin of show.

Spinners have been effective for a number of reasons. This includes, an element of complacency from batsmen to think they can take them on and hit them out of the park and in the process providing more chances for spinners to take wickets and get their confidence going. Also, generally the smartness of spinners in varying their pace and experimenting with different angles to keep batsmen guessing. Spinners have adapted to mastering the format and deserve credit for that. They bowl at a quitter passage of the game when the field is back and batsmen are content on knocking the singles which perhaps is one of the reasons the economy rates are as good as they are, but nonetheless when they bowl in the restrictions they also keep things tidy as batsmen are not used to facing them with the hardness of the new ball which tends to skid on. With the shortness of the run ups, it’s difficult for batsmen to think on their feet when attacking and trying to be pro-active as they get through their overs incredibly quickly and don’t give you much time at all in between deliveries. Some bowlers with high arm releases like Bhaji and Botha have also developed a Yorker and with their short run this can be difficult for batsmen to set themselves and counter-act it.
Twenty20 cricket is about boundaries and wickets for me. Generally the side who hits more boundaries and takes more wickets should win the game. However, it’s important to understand the importance of a dot ball, bowling as many as possible and stopping singles in the field, but also trying to reduce the percentage of dot balls when batting and playing as many scoring shots as possible to keep the scoreboard moving. In doing that, you develop a rhythm and boundaries become easier to come by. It also keeps the bowlers under some sort of pressure, knowing that runs are continuously being leaked with ease against them and the team.
 Many sides use a ‘boundary an over strategy’ where they try to find the fence at least once in an over and take singles around it. In doing that, they already achieve a productive 7 or 8 an over. Sometimes when the opponents are bowling well and are hard to get away and the percentages are not in your favour you have to hold back and restrict yourself to singles and back yourself to score boundaries and make up for it against other bowlers at different other stages of the innings.
Twenty20 cricket is about expressing yourself, its action packed eventful drama in a short time scale. Obviously, you have the license to play you’re shot and free yourself up in such a format, but it might be an idea for teams who do not play spin particularly well to hold back and play the waiting game against the spinners, trying not to give their wickets away and target the quicker men in the restrictions at the start where scoring will be a lot easier or when they come back at the back end. In doing so, they are ensuring the innings doesn’t go pear shaped and they give themselves maximum opportunity of taking advantage of the pacers where they feel more comfortable, but also ensure they limit the damage spin can do. Teams can easily counteract that by opening the bowling with spin and bowling more overs of spin and possibly playing an extra spinner in which case you have to take a few more risks if the innings is to get anywhere.
Pakistan have the best spin attack in the competition. The land of talented fast bowlers is now the land of crafty spinners. Saaed Ajmal, Shahid Afridi and Mohammad Hafeez will form a dangerous trio between them. They are the stand out spin attack and should back themselves in these conditions. India have Ahswin and Bhaji and also Yuvraj who are 3 very different types of spinners. This will make it difficult for the batting side to adjust and they also should back themselves in such conditions. Swann is a fine bowler in this version of the game and it’s hard to keep him out of the action with his classical off spinners. Mendis of Sri Lanka could be a real threat, the mystery bowler who holds the record for the best figures in an international Twenty20 game. New Zealand are boosted with Vettori’s inclusion in this version of the game. The highly experienced slow left arm spinner is a nagging bowler and well complemented by the off spin of McCullum who is one of the best around in this format. Sunil Narine who was the player of the tournament in the IPL is running through oppositions as many mystery bowlers do at the beginning of their careers when they are the new kid on the block and largely unknown. West Indies have a magician up their sleeves. Not to forget Brad Hogg, the left arm wrist spinner who makes a come-back at 41 or his IPL teammate Johan Botha.The quality is endless and I expect spin to dominate this 20 day carnival.
I am expecting modest totals of around 140, but with the quality of spin on show, for many sides this might be more than enough.
The only concern for spinners is the weather. If they are having to grip a wet ball from a wet outfield this will be challenging to control and in the process batsmen will inevitably get some loose deliveries to put away. The weather at this time of the year is the not the most reliable and we can expect some interruptions during the course of the tournament. For spin heavy attacks, this might be a worry, but they should be prepared to face the worst.

Sunday, September 2, 2012

World T20 2012 Predictions



20 days long in duration of international cricket’s biggest Twenty20 extravaganza.
27 matches are scheduled to take place at Colombo, Pallekele and Hambantota.
12 teams are competing for the crown, 10 test playing nations along with Afghanistan and Ireland.
180 players in total are at the event.
None of the previous 3 winners will retain or regain crown. We will have a new 4th winner which is a plus side for the competition if it does happen.
I feel MJs Sri Lanka will go all the way in the men’s edition on home territory.
Charlotte Edwards England side will win the women’s equivalent which runs parallel with the men.
South Africa and New Zealand/West Indies will both reach the semi-final stage and possibly beyond.
The final semi-final place will belong to one of India or Pakistan.

Pakistan is a tough one to call. They are the most consistent Twenty20 side in this competition over the previous 3 editions, they have some experienced names both in terms of past exposure to this tournament and playing this format all over the world, favourable and familiar conditions and decent preparation to top it off, but given the group of death they have been seeded in I wouldn’t be surprised if they are eliminated at the super 8s, but if they do happen to come through that it’s just a case of delivering on the day. They are one of the contenders that can go all the way if they get through, but I wouldn’t bank on them. Pakistan will become the first side to win this world competition twice, but I don’t feel 2012 will be the year for that. Maybe they will have to wait for 2014 in Bangladesh for that to happen.

Most likely to win

1)      Sri Lanka

2)      New Zealand/West Indies

3)      Pakistan

4)      South Africa

5)      India/England

6)      Australia

 In the initial preliminary pool we are most likely to have an upset in Pakistan’s group, ‘Group D’ where Bangladesh and New Zealand will play in Pallekele along with Pakistan. Group ‘B’ where Ireland will play Australia and West Indies is another one that could potentially cause an upset.

 Final Prediction in terms of Likelihood

1)      Sri Lanka vs. New Zealand

2)      Pakistan vs. New Zealand

3)      Sri Lanka vs. West Indies

4)      Sri Lanka vs. South Africa

5)      South Africa vs. India

Predictions

Initial Pools

Group A

1) England
2) India
3) Afghanistan

Group B

1) West Indies
2) Australia
3) Ireland

Group C

1) Sri Lanka
2) South Africa
3) Zimbabwe

Group D

1) Pakistan
2) New Zealand
3) Zimbabwe

Super 8s

Group E

1) Sri Lanka
2) New Zealand
3) West Indies
4) England

Group F

1) South Africa
2) Pakistan
3) India
4) Australia

Semi Finals

Sri Lanka vs Pakistan = Sri Lanka
New Zealand vs South Africa = New Zealand

Final

Sri Lanka vs New Zealand = Sri Lanka

Leading run scorer = Kumar Sangakkara
Leading wicket taker = Lasith Malinga
Player of the tournament = Kumar Sangakkara
Most catches = MJ

Friday, August 17, 2012



Pakistan under-19s will lock horns with India earlier than both teams would have expected and hoped for at the quarter final stage on Monday at the Tony Ireland stadium. It will be televised. India failed to win their group whereas Pakistan won all 3 matches with comfortable ease. The most awaited game of the tournament should be a cracking contest. Both of these two teams were strong contenders for the title and they would have wanted to avoid each other before the semis, but the sad reality is that one of them will be knocked out and fail to reach the semis on Monday. Between them they have featured in 5 finals at the U19 CWC since 2004, winning 3 of them. Both teams come with a strong history and reputation at this level and they will want to protect and strengthen that here.

The last 3 times they have met Pakistan haven’t lost a single encounter, but all encounters have gone down to the wire and been close fought games. The margins of victory are as follows:-

- 2 wicket win in a rain reduced game with 3 balls to spare at 2010 U19 CWC QF
- 1 run win in U-19 Asia Cup on 24th June
- Last ball tie in U-19 Asia Cup Final on 1st July

Just like in 2010 they will be meeting at the quarter final stage at the Under 19 World Cup. Will India be knocked out again or will they get their revenge?

India’s Strengths

Exposure of playing on television in front of the cameras
Exposure of playing at the wicket here at the Tony Ireland Stadium
The ’Unmukt Chand’ factor
Defensive play of their batsmen who all have sound techniques
Playing Spin

India’s Weaknesses

Attacking the short ball, a clear area of vulnerability
Lack of depth and explosiveness in the batting
Hesitancy in the running between the wickets
Heavy over reliance on Chand

Pakistan’s Strengths

Opening combination
Finishers
Late order hitting
Spinners

Pakistan’s Weaknesses

Seam attack
Conditions/venue
Lack of television exposure
Lack of a 6th bowling option
One dimensional spin attack

Potential MOMs

Chand – big match player, in form captain, most prized Indian wicket

Baba – made a significant score with the bat against Pakistan in the last match and bowls off spinners which will be useful against the many Pakistani left handed batsmen and all-rounders

Sharma – experienced customer with ball in hand

Babar Azam – already has 2 MOMs in the tournament, in form captain

Sami Aslam – player of the tournament in SA triangular series and U19 Asia Cup 2012

Ehsan Adil – bowled heroically in the tied encounter, taking 3 wickets and holding his nerve in the final over

Prediction

As Pakistan topped their group and have the winning momentum behind them, they will be bitterly disappointed to lose, perhaps even more so than India. They have the edge over India at this level in recent times. I am backing them to win, but they’ll have to play well and it won’t come easily. Runs on the board will be important; the pressure of chasing in a knockout game can easily get to the chasing side and it will be no different here.

How well Pakistan adapts to the conditions at this particular stadium and the pressures of playing under the cameras which will be a new experience for several of these players will be a decisive factor.

Both teams have a consistent and established opening pair. Whoever puts on a higher opening stand and goes on to make a bigger score will probably determine the outcome of the game. It’s the As (Aslam, Azam) vs. the Cs (Chand, Chopra). Both have scored 3 50+ scores between them for both sides in the pool matches. Both have put on a stand of over 100 for the 1st wicket during the pool matches. Both bat well in partnership and a have a sound understanding of each other’s games.

Key Battles

Sharma vs. Azam – Sharma nips the ball about both ways with not a great amount of pace. He has been likened to Praveen Kumar. With 2 new balls, mirroring international cricket, he could cause the right hander a few problems. Azam has been dismissed by Sharma in the previous U19 CWC quarter final in New Zealand when he was bowled through the gate by an inswing delivery. Azam will need to be cautious and try to see him off.

Adil vs. Chopra – Another opening bowler vs. opening batsmen battle where games are decided so often, but particularly relevant here with two gifted opening combinations for both sides. Chopra looks extremely susceptible to the short pitched delivery from the 2 games we have seen India play live in this tournament. With Adil’s height one would think he’ll bowl back of a length and try to bounce him out.

Pakistan spinners vs. Indian batsmen – Pakistan play 3 front line spinners, 2 left arm spinners and one right arm leg spinner. They are a spin dominated attack, bowling around 30 overs in the innings combined more often than not. India will need to play them well to get a decent total. It’s a big part of the game.

Wednesday, August 8, 2012

Aim For 2015 says Warner and Amla

David Warner and Hashim Amla have urged the current crop of U19 cricketers currently in Australia for the World Cup to aim high and set their sights on targeting participating in the 2015 World Cup in less than 3 years’ time which will also take place in Australia/New Zealand as it returns to the Oceania continent after 23 years.

From the 2008 U19 CWC, Virat Kohli, the winning captain played his part in India’s triumphant 2011 campaign 3 years later. Similarly Ahmed Shehzad who played in the 2010 edition was part of the Pakistan squad for the 2011 50 over world sub continental world cup. Junaid Khan was also part of the 2008 edition and found a place in the Pakistan 15 man squad for the world cup in 2011.

Many of the current crops of players are bound to represent their countries in the next 50 over world cup and a strong showing over the next 3 weeks could play a vital part in making a successful transition from the youth to the senior side, even if it is not to be in the immediate future, but the youngsters can be rest assured that their performances will be followed and observed closely from some important figures in their respective cricketing institutions.

Qasim Has got it All Wrong

Iqbal Qasim recalled Abdul Razzaq, Kamran Akmal and Imran Nazir for the series against Australia and the World T20 which follows as so called specialist selections for the shortest version of the game. All of these players bring natural talent; entertainment and match winning ability to the party or in Kamran Akmal’s case even more match losing ability than winning with all due respect.

Twenty20 format should encourage specialists, but if they are young enough to develop, evolve and have a future in the more important formats of the game to provide long term benefit to Pakistan Cricket. Alternatively they could play the other two formats and still play Twenty20 cricket because more often than not test cricketers are ‘complete products’ who have a wider range of skills and attributes to transfer their abilities to the easier formats whereas it doesn’t work the other way round. Also, maintaining that sense of team togetherness by being around the same camp over more days and series in different formats should bring flourishing results across all versions of the 22 yard business. There will be more unity, understanding and bonding that way.

Abdul Razzaq, Imran Nazir and Kamran Akmal do not have a future in any other format other than Twenty20 cricket in the short term, but naturally when a player is performing well in this format, particularly on a well watched scale like a global T20 tournament, they tend to earn recalls and promotions to other formats as well. This could be detrimental to Pakistan’s future as all are past it or have little to offer where it really counts in the more serious proceedings.

Specialist selections of ageing players in Twenty20 cricket have little benefit for Pakistan’s long term development, planning and hopes.

Hammad Azam, Ahmed Shehzad and a specialist wicket keeper like Jamal or Safraz would have been wiser choices. We want to do well in Twenty20 cricket, but not to the extent that we take it so seriously that we are satisfied with short term glory for long term pain, or in other words making short term sacrifices as opposed to considering the wider picture. Qasim’s choices send out the wrong message. The odd specialist selection of an ageing player is okay, but not as many as this. It’s important to get the balance right.

Wednesday, July 25, 2012

Pakistan Shoud Win 3-0 vs Australia

Pakistan will be playing Australia in 3 one day internationals in late August. Pakistan should fancy their chances of winning the series 3-0. Australia in their last two ODI series have drawn 2-2 vs. West Indies away and lost 4-0 vs. England away, even though they did win the commonwealth bank triangular series earlier in the year at home against Sri Lanka and India.

When Australia last toured the Emirates in the first part of 2009 they came out on top 3-2. Dav Whatmore will be up against his home country during this series which initially was set to become the longest ever Twenty20 international series compromising of as many as 6 matches, but that of course has been changed now with the tour consisting of 3 of each, 50 and 20 over internationals.

Pakistan’s home record in ODI series at the Emirates is surprisingly poor:

Lost 3-2 vs. Australia 2009
Lost 2-1 vs. New Zealand 2009
Lost 3-2 vs. South Africa 2010
Won 4-1 vs. Sri Lanka 2011
Won 1-0 vs. Afghanistan 2012
Lost 4-0 vs. England 2012

Pakistan have lost both of their ODI series this year against England and Sri Lanka. However, they are still a strong one day side, winning the most one day internationals in 2011 with 24 out of 31 victories and winning the Asia Cup this year for just the 2nd time in their history. A strong side should bounce back. Australia are still officially the number 1 ranked side, but in these conditions Pakistan should be settling for nothing less than a series win and winning all 3 of the games. Pakistan have won each of their last Test, ODI and T20 against the Baggy Greens.